Before the 2022 midterm elections, many Republicans anticipated a “Red Wave.” The Cook Political Report had even forecasted a GOP gain of 12-25 seats in the House of Representatives, according to NBC News. Predictions for a Red Wave stemmed from factors including President Joe Biden’s dismal approval ratings and the country’s rapidly rising rate of inflation, peaking at 8.20% in September this year — compared with the annual inflation rate of 1.40% in 2020. Despite voter anxiety regarding Democrats’ ability to lower inflation, the Red Wave never happened.
Democrats maintained control of the Senate with Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s victory in Nevada, while Republicans took control of the House with an extremely slim majority, contrary to their predicted strong hold on the chamber. The strength of the Democratic Party amidst Biden’s low approval rate can be traced directly to Biden’s Republican rival, former President Donald Trump.
Trump single-handedly tarnished how Americans of every party perceive Republicans. His win in 2016 proved that an overwhelming number of people were willing to overlook his reputation of utter disrespect toward women, racist remarks, including calling Mexican immigrants “rapists,” and discrimination towards the LGBTQ+ community.
Nonetheless, Trump’s dreadful personality was seemingly self-contained back then, as his deceptive and prejudiced rhetoric did not yet have the time to take root among his fanbase and produce destructive consequences for American democracy. Thus, swing voters and moderate Republicans overlooked his problematic social and political beliefs in favor of factors such as his strong economic policies.
But, no American could ignore Trump’s deadly impact, showcased on the national stage during the United States Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021. Insurrectionists at the Capitol believed Trump’s lies about election fraud, motivating them to storm the Capitol to prevent Biden from assuming the presidency. In the end, nine people died, and over 100 were injured.
Trump’s lies regarding election fraud incited violence at the Capitol, but that did not stop him from continuously spreading them at rallies and within his circle of radical conservatives. Bloomberg reports that 253 key political leaders support Trump’s false claims of election fraud.
Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake was among the 2020 election deniers that Trump endorsed during the midterms. Upon losing to Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs, Lake mirrored Trump’s 2020 election fraud claims, tweeting “Arizonians know BS when they see it.” She added, “For two years, I’ve been sounding the alarm about our broken-election system here in Arizona. And this past week has confirmed everything.” Trump’s inability to concede in 2020 is becoming normalized by Republicans, setting an anti-Democratic precedent for the party.
Radical conservatives have also taken violent actions due to Trump’s lies. In late October, a man left a voicemail to election officials in Arizona saying, “When we come to lynch your stupid lying Commie [expletive], you’ll remember that you lied on the [expletive] Bible…We’re going to hang you.”
As bipartisanship crumbles and far-right Republicans normalize hatred and brutality, Trump is aware of his damaging lies. Resurfaced emails between Trump and the former law school dean at Chapman University revealed that “Trump knew that the specific numbers of voter fraud were wrong but continued to tout those numbers, both in court and to the public.” Trump sees that his lies generate violence repeatedly, but he simply does not care about the safety of citizens who do not support him.
Evidence of Trump’s lying and harmful impact on democratic institutions continues to add up while his influence over the Republican Party remains. This realization among independent voters, and even Republicans, has stopped the swell of the so-called Red Wave this midterm cycle.
Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell asserted: “we [Republicans] underperformed among independents and moderates because their impression of many of the people of party and leadership roles is that they’re involved in chaos, negativity [and] excessive attacks.”
Reporters from NBC News concluded that “Independents didn’t vote for candidates they viewed as extreme and too closely linked with Donald J. Trump.” Further, a study by the Pew Research Center shows that since Trump’s reelection campaign in 2020, significantly fewer Republicans feel warmly toward him: down from 79% to 60%. Even the former Vice President, Mike Pence, told CNN that there would be “better choices” than Trump and that Americans were looking for “new leadership… that [would] reflect the civility and respect that most Americans have for each other.”
With many Republicans blaming Trump for lackluster results in the midterm elections, his announcement of a 2024 Presidential bid has been met with mixed reactions from the party. Some are looking towards fresh talent like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to infuse the party with “charisma and vision,” according to CNN.
In any case, considering the damage Trump has inflicted upon Americans’ perception of Republicans, the party absolutely requires new leadership to win the 2024 presidential election and repair its current reputation of disrespect and misinformation.
Chaya Sandhu is an Opinion Intern for the fall 2022 quarter. She can be reached at clsandhu@uci.edu.