Irvine’s April 15 special election in Council District 5 will be the first major indication of the newly-drawn district’s political climate since the city’s general municipal election last fall. District 5 includes Rancho San Joaquin, University Park, Westpark and Woodbridge.
The race features three candidates vying for the seat vacated by Irvine Mayor Larry Agran upon his election last November: public relations executive Betty Martinez Franco, former Councilmember Anthony Kuo and homeowners’ association board member Dana Cornelius.
City offices in California are officially nonpartisan, per the state Constitution, but voters as well as local party establishments routinely rally behind candidates who share their sentiments.
Martinez Franco has the backing of Democrats, including endorsements from Rep. Dave Min and Assemblymember Cottie Petrie-Norris. Kuo is backed by Republicans and has endorsements from Irvine Vice Mayor James Mai and Councilmember Mike Carroll. Cornelius has not attained as widespread name recognition as Martinez Franco and Kuo.
Registrar data indicates that the precincts that comprise District 5 have not voted for a Republican-backed candidate since 2018 when Don Wagner won a second term as mayor and Kuo first won a council seat, per precinct-by-precinct data. Since then, the district has undergone notable political realignments, driven in part by a growing population of younger, college-educated residents and Asian American voters. The change in demographics has helped Democratic-backed candidates, who have consistently prevailed in the past three election cycles. Kamala Harris carried the district in the 2024 presidential election with 58% of the vote, compared to Donald Trump’s 37%.
Republicans tend to perform best with older voters in the northern half of the Woodbridge community, near the North Lake. Kuo performed best in these precincts during his last campaign in the 2022 midterm elections. However, he consistently placed behind Democratic-backed candidates Agran and current At-Large Councilmember Kathleen Treseder in other precincts within District 5.
California does not require automatic recounts for any election contest. Any registered voter may request a recount of votes and is responsible for filing the request.
Here’s a look at what to expect on April 15:
Election Day
The special municipal election in Irvine Council District 5 will be held on April 15. Polls close at 8 p.m. PDT.
What’s on the ballot?
Voters will elect a councilmember for a shortened term ending in December 2026. City council terms are staggered such that three seats will be up for election every two years.
Who gets to vote?
All registered voters in District 5 are eligible to vote in this election.
What do registration and early turnout look like?
As of April 7, District 5 had 28,959 active registered voters, of which about 40% were registered Democrats, 27% were Republicans and 28% did not identify with a political party.
District 5 turnout in the 2024 general municipal election was about 70% of registered voters. This is down from 2022 when the district saw a 92% turnout in the final election to use an at-large system to elect councilmembers.
Turnout traditionally peaks in presidential election years, but declines sharply in local special elections as older, more politically engaged voters make up a larger share of the electorate, while younger voters often participate less in local affairs.
As of April 14, 5,405 ballots had been cast, of which 46% were from Democrats, 33% were from Republicans and 19% were from voters with no party preference.
How much impact will the mayor have?
Agran won 41% of the vote in the district during his mayoral campaign in 2024, and 25% when he last ran for city council in 2022. He remains the only Democratic-backed candidate in recent cycles to win the support of older voters in north Woodbridge. Martinez Franco has positioned herself closely with Agran — particularly on housing, adopting Agran’s careful approach to development — and has campaigned heavily in Woodbridge to win over middle-aged and older voters.
Kuo has listed a quote of support from Agran on his campaign website, in which Agran praises Kuo’s time on the council and describes being pleased at Kuo’s decision to run.
Agran himself has not made a public statement on any candidate.
How long does vote counting usually take?
In the 2024 general municipal election, results were first reported at 8:05 p.m. on Nov. 5, with successive updates in increments of 30 to 45 minutes.
By midnight, about 69% of total ballots were counted.
Tallies were updated at 5 p.m. each successive day after Election Day.
Kian Momeny is a News Staff Writer. He can be reached at kmomeny@uci.edu.