Myanmar has fought for their liberation from militia rule in what’s being called the Spring Revolution — a civil war between the people of Myanmar and a tyrannical military regime — ever since the initial military coup on Jan. 21, 2021. This current revolution could not only be the end of an almost century long struggle against the militia tyranny, but it also has the opportunity to truly revolutionize Myanmar and their relationship with the military. With Myanmar’s freedom all but a nudge away, the success of their revolution can only be achieved if international powers are willing to step up and help.
The revolution started when de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi — who was officially the State Counsellor as she could not legally be called president — had won the Dec. 2020 elections against the opposition party. The military, claiming the election was fraudulent, then launched a coup against her. The retaliation from Myanmar’s people then began in the form of protests. What started off as peaceful protests has turned into a war between the people and the military.
The Spring Revolution has proven itself to be an opportune reawakening for Myanmar given the country’s long struggle against military regimes. Directly before the Spring Revolution, Myanmar was finally gathering its footing in democratic processes. They were fresh out of the winnings of the Saffron Revolution — the 2007 protests against the military government or ‘junta’ — and learning to navigate the later established military-dominated civilian parliament.
The people of Myanmar could choose their leaders for the first time in history. Having spent years fighting against British colonial rule and decades against corrupt military leaders, Myanmar could finally feel safe under the democracy they had fought so hard for. Then, the military came back into the picture.
In an effort to reinvent Myanmar’s politics, an entire parallel government, known as the National Unity Government (NUG), was erected by activists and lawmakers from minority groups within Myanmar. Their civilian run People’s Defense Force (PDF) emerged as a militia to fight against military powers in their armed revolution.
With the effort of these forces, Myanmar had the chance to blossom after the Spring Revolution. The unique demographics of both the NUG and the PDF have opened the door for ethnic minority groups to work alongside the ethnic majority in the government system of Myanmar.
With half of the NUG’s cabinet composed of ethnic minorities and the PDF being spearheaded by Myanmar’s younger generations, Myanmar is on the precipice of establishing a government that values voices that have been historically overlooked. However, their optimism about Myanmar cannot succeed without the military aid they need to continue an armed revolution.
The resources of the junta far outweigh those of the Myanmar people — thanks to assistance from Russia. In exchange for Myanmar’s financial support, Russia has agreed to not only supply them with oil but with arms as well. Russia needs the support of them as well, as their invasion of Ukraine has left them with sanctions up to their ankles from the U.S. and EU.
On the other hand, the people of Myanmar have run so low on weapon supply that they began using homemade ones. The NUG has been reaching out to other international powers to aid them in arming their forces. However, these calls for help have continuously been met by silence and ineffective humanitarian aid.
Aside from the occasional United Nations condemning statement against the actions of the junta, international aid for their armed revolution is nowhere to be found. Even sanctions placed on junta military officials by the U.S. were lacking without the sanctioning of oil or gas and ensuring that humanitarian aid traveled safely throughout Myanmar.
In 2011, Myanmar was just beginning to get economic support from other countries from opening up to trade and foreign investment, but their crimes against their own people led many countries to pull their support around 2017. This attempt failed to plant the strong economic roots needed to defend Myanmar.
Too many world powers assume that if dialogue between the people and Myanmar’s government starts, the violence will eventually stop. In reality, Myanmar’s military couldn’t care less about how many of their own people they must kill to stay in power.
Dialogue will only lead to betrayal, as was proven with past political figures being manipulated to side with the military regime. It’s foolish to believe the military wouldn’t betray the people again. Yet, the U.S. refuses to provide aid to Myanmar in hopes that dialogue will be started. Even the aid the U.S. and U.N. do give either goes through the junta themselves or is completely blocked by them, explaining why its been almost no help to the effort itself.
This needs to change. Myanmar’s people may be winning the pushback against the junta, but their success is not guaranteed without more aid at their disposal. The U.S. has done its part in providing humanitarian aid but has relentlessly disagreed with an armed revolution. The EU has made similar remarks, arguing that hostility must be ended immediately. Therefore, Myanmar has received no militia aid from the West. The people of Myanmar cannot expect to win this fight vulnerable to the whims of a leader that would kill them at any moment.
If other countries are not willing to step in to water down the military imbalance, an armed revolution is the only feasible option to winning the war. If countries like the U.S. don’t realize this reality, the people of Myanmar may never win this fight.
As long as the junta continues to receive military aid from Russia and civilians are expected to arm themselves, the power imbalance will only make itself more apparent as time goes on. The world has a choice to either watch the efforts of a people pitter out, just as we watched it burst into flames, or to throw in a log and fan the flames that will finally rebirth Myanmar anew.
Layla Asgarian Nahavandi is an Opinion Intern for the fall 2022 quarter. She can be reached at lasgaria@uci.edu.